Economic review

Second quarter of 2025: Stock market recovery despite ongoing uncertainty

The second quarter of 2025 was marked by a return of calm in financial markets following the turbulent start in April, with higher prices on global stock exchanges. Nevertheless, the global economic outlook remains uncertain, mainly due to the impact of US President Trump’s trade policy.

In April, Trump unveiled high import tariffs on many countries and trade blocs. Import tariffs were higher than expected. This led to a sharp decline in the stock markets. After a postponement was announced, prices recovered quickly.

Despite the uncertainty over Trump's trade policy, this did not lead to lower stock prices. However, the value of the dollar declined and the economic outlook for the US became less positive. Higher import tariffs increased the prices of goods in the US. Domestic government policy also had a negative impact on the US economy. The ‘One Big Beautiful Bill Act’ will cause a sharp increase in US government debt.