Economic review

Second quarter 2026: high oil prices, artificial intelligence and higher interest rates

The second quarter was volatile due to two issues: the Strait of Hormuz conflict and artificial intelligence (AI).

For the entire quarter, there were doubts as to whether the United States (US) and Iran would reach an agreement. The countries agreed a first ceasefire in early April. The price of oil then fell by about 16% and the US stock market rose sharply. But the relief was short-lived, with the ceasefire no longer in place by the end of May. Oil prices rose again and a sea blockade reappeared.

Higher oil prices often lead to higher prices, or what we know as inflation. This leads to consumers having less money for discretionary spending.

At the same time, AI continued to influence the financial markets. Large technology companies such as Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet and Meta, and later NVIDIA, reported better-than-expected results, and increased their investment in AI again. Investors mainly rewarded companies that were able to show that these investments also generate income. Conversely, companies that mainly increased their spending received a negative reaction.